Oscar Prognosticatin'

Before I put myself on record with my predictions for tonight's show, I'll come right out and admit: for someone who's spent a significant portion of his life obsessing over film, spent six years studying and/or working in a film school, and currently makes part of his living from film criticism, I have about the worst Academy Award prediction average on the planet. I'm guessing that Jenn, who hasn't seen almost any of the nominated films this year, will score higher than me on sheer guesswork. But here goes, in the order of the ballot - results after the show:

Actor - Leading:
I think Daniel Day-Lewis is the shoo-in here, and take a shot for every time someone makes an "I'll drink your milkshake reference" over the course of the evening.

Actor - Supporting
Casey Affleck should win for his uncomfortable-in-his-own-skin turn in The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford, criminally undernominated this year (as is Fincher's Zodiac), but it's actually a contest between Javier Bardem and Hal Holbrook. I'm predicting Bardem will take it, given his iconic stature in the year's filmic memory, but Halbrook has the sympathy vote behind him. Ruby Dee may well appease that instinct for voters, though.

Actress - Leading
Another toss-up, this one between Marion Cotillard in La Vie en Rose and Julie Christie in Away From Her. Cotillard has the advantage of that Academy favorite, a gorgeous actress uglied up by gobs of make-up, plus the impression of a famous personage, which tends to go over well; but it's a French film, and Oscar hates to read. Christie gets to suffer, from Alzheimer's in this case, plus has the aging-gracefully vote. I give her the edge.

Actress - Supporting
Cate Blanchett would seem a natural, given the fact that she's playing not only a well-known celeb but a male well-known celeb, but the power of sympathy will likely incline voters toward Ruby Dee, who's never won. Dee doesn't necessarily deserve the award for an underwritten, brassy-old-mother role from American Gangster, but this could be her compensation Oscar, especially with the loss of Ossie Davis so recently.

Animated Feature
I have a hard time believing voters could turn away from the greatness of Persepolis, even though the notoriously conservative award tends to go towards big-name family features, which would tend to favor Ratatouille (a really good film - I'm quite the Brad Bird fan - but not the best this year). We can ignore Surf's Up pretty safely, I think.

Art Direction
Could go to Sweeney Todd, but this is a category that worships big fantasy or sweeping period flicks, so I'm guessing Atonement will win, with its period mansions and WWII grime.

Cinematography
Kind of a tough call - I'd give it to Assassination, but I'll take a stab in the dark and say the flaming oil fields of There Will Be Blood do the trick for this one. Would be nice to see the double-nommed Roger Deakins (for Assassination and No Country For Old Men) take it, though. Would be well-deserved for a stunning year.

Costume Design
A walk for the over-the-top frills of the otherwise-dreadful Elizabeth: The Golden Age. Though it should lose for Clive Owens' puffy shirts.

Directing
This should be the Coens' year. They may sweep picture and director, but I think this one is the given of the two.

Documentary Feature
Missed most of these. Don't think anybody could stomach another Michael Moore win (though my own disgust with the health-care system made me more sympathetic with his propagandistic tactics in Sicko than usual, except for the Cuba-glorifying finale), and No End in Sight and Taxi To the Darkside may split the anti-Bush vote (haven't seen the apparently great Taxi yet, though). In short, War/Dance has kids and triumph over adversity. Oscar loves that shit.

Documentary Short
I've only seen one of these, Iraq in Fragments director James Longley's Sari's Mother, but it's gorgeous and something of a tearjerker, so I feel safe betting on it.

Film Editing
Hmmm... tough call. I'll go with The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, since it isn't likely to win anything else and has plenty of trickery that calls attention to editing rhythms.

Foreign Language Film
Because of all manner of nonsensical rules, some obvious nominees got excluded, and only one of these has played in Philly - and hasn't actually opened yet. I caught a screening of The Counterfeiters this week, and it's not particularly good, but has enough elements (WWII, redemption) that Academy voters fall for, so I'll go for it. This might be different if I'd seen any of the others, but I haven't, so it isn't.

Makeup
If Marion Cotillard doesn't win best actress for being transformed into Edith Piaf, those responsible for the uglying-up and aging will take it. La Vie en Rose.

Original Score
Why the fuck is Johnny Greenwood's brilliant score for There Will Be Blood not even nominated?!?! That's flat-out the most glaring misstep of the whole show this year. I'll bet on The Kite Runner undeservingly taking this one.

Original Song
Three Enchantment tunes cancelling each other out, and August Rush? Good lord, really? This will be the heartwarming win of the night, going to Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova for Once. Bound to be the performance highlight of the show as well.

Best Picture
The big'un, and the one where I'm most likely to go horribly wrong in my predictions. No Country for Old Men has all the momentum, and everyone seems to think it'll come down to a showdown between it and There Will Be Blood. But I've been saying since the nominations that Atonement is just the sort of epic, romance-and-war treacle that the Oscars tend to bend over for again and again, and it's also the one film among the nominees that I actively disliked, and will therefore win. I'm stubbornly sticking to that prediction, and hope to be proved wrong. If voters walk out after the bleak, nihilist ending of No Country and still vote for it, then I will publicly admit that I've underestimated Hollywood.

Short Film - Animated
Of the two shorts programs, the animations actually have a few deserving entries, especially the stunning, mysterious Madame Tutli-Putli. But my money is on My Love, an impressionist painting come to life whose style is gorgeous even if its story is overheated romanticism. As long as the nod doesn't land on the dull, by-the-numbers British/Polish adaptation of Peter and the Wolf.

Short Film - Live Action
A dreadful, ultra-conservative batch whose creators can hope at best to someday direct Super Bowl commercials. Award will likely go to the one-joke Tanghi Argentini, if only because people like cute gags and tango.

Sound Editing/Sound Mixing
Combining the two into one, because there's no pinging submarine movie this year. So I'll take The Bourne Ultimatum for both, if only because it's a loud action film. Whatever.

Visual Effects
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End. Had lots of effects. Therefore, it will win. That's my thought process. Keep it simple.

Screenplay - Adapted
Especially if I'm right about Atonement winning Best Picture (which I'm probably not), this'll be the concession for No Country For Old Men. Could very well reverse the two. I think the two will share screenplay and picture, though the Coens could well sweep.

Screenplay - Original
Ah, the Miss Congeniality award for the little picture with no real Best Pic hopes, but will get its moment of glory anyway. This year: Juno. Diablo Cody has such a rich backstory, too, this is the gimme to morning-after journos looking for an underdog angle.